“That doesn’t mean mortgage rates would automatically increase under a Burnham government. In fact, if reforms are viewed as economically credible and supportive of housing mobility, markets could ultimately respond positively. However, the mortgage impact of Burnham as PM is likely to be far greater than the impact of Starmer’s resignation, because policy changes have a much stronger influence on borrowing costs than leadership changes alone.”
What should landlords do while the political dust settles?
Across both segments, Lane’s message was consistent. Focus on what can be controlled now, not on what might be enacted over the next Parliament.
For landlords reviewing their buy-to-let positions, Lane said the near-term fundamentals have not changed, even as the political environment has shifted sharply. He pointed to the Bank of England base rate, housing supply, and buyer confidence as the drivers that actually move values, not the identity of the occupant at Downing Street.
“In the short term, values are still driven far more by the Bank of England base rate, the supply of homes and buyer confidence than by who’s in Downing Street. The market has weathered every leadership change of the past decade, and this is no different. Landlords should read the direction of travel rather than any single announcement.”
Lane noted Burnham’s record as Greater Manchester mayor points toward tighter regulation of the private rented sector but also grants to help landlords meet energy efficiency standards. He flagged capital gains tax alignment with income tax as a live possibility, and warned that if disincentives accumulate, the real consequence would be reduced stock and upward rent pressure rather than direct house price falls.