Nick Dunn, head of commercial at Brown&Co, offers his perspective on the US president’s trade tariffs.
With the International Monetary Fund downgrading its economic forecasts for the UK – and a 48.2 PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) reading last month, the lowest since 2022 – the impact of Trump’s tariffs on UK markets is undoubtedly being felt.
It’s clear the shock tariff tactics are resulting in slower growth; however, UK economists are not forecasting a recession.
UK businesses are feeling the blow of the higher export tariffs to the US as well as the disruption to their global supply chains – and need to readjust and react.
So, what does that mean for the commercial property sector?
Construction is being hit by the higher costs of importing bricks and other building materials as well as labour challenges. However, it’s the overall feeling of a lack of confidence, which we haven’t seen since Covid, that is potentially more damaging.
Nick Dunn, head of commercial at Brown&Co (Image: Brown&Co) It comes at a time when we have been seeing an upturn in investment in commercial business locally. Investment is happening in Norwich with the Anglia Square scheme, as we discussed in our last article.
New business parks such as Broadland Gate are almost full, and infrastructure works are well advanced at the new Broadway Enterprise Park, with further commercial development to start on site shortly.
All of this points to a resilient local marketplace.
Some fallout from Trump’s tariffs is inevitable. However, we do need to be positive; if fears over a global economic downturn result in further interest rate cuts, it could be an incentive for commercial investors.
Indeed we have seen a noticeable upsurge in demand for well-let commercial property assets, which suggests commercial real estate is being seen as a solid and tangible haven for investment in an otherwise unpredictable and challenging marketplace.
While uncertainty prevails, there are decent opportunities out there if you know where to find them.
Nick Dunn, head of commercial at Brown&Co, can be contacted on 01603 629871.