But distorted comparison of April 2025 shows 53% rise
UK residential transactions fell 3% in April compared to the month before, down from 103,910 to 101,030, but were 53% higher than the same time last year when activity dropped following changes to the SDLT thresholds, according to the latest HMRC property transactions data.
Hamza Behzad, business development director at Finova, said the seasonally adjusted figures were encouraging. “In spite of rising geopolitical tensions and volatile swap rates, the UK housing market has kept its footing. While the traditional spring bounce may not have reached the heights of previous years, the market is steady.
“It is still too early to say how the Iran war will affect the UK housing market over the long term. But some factors are easier to predict. Inflation growth has been low at 2.8%, but it is only likely to go up in the next few months.
“On the other hand, the Renters’ Rights Act may encourage many landlords to speed up their exit plans, releasing new properties into the market and creating more choice for buyers. The picture is complicated, but the UK housing market has a track record of standing up to economic turbulence.”
Holding broadly steady
Ryan McGrath, director of second charge mortgages at Pepper Money, said the distorted comparison of April 2025 makes direct year-on-year comparisons more difficult to interpret than usual. “The more meaningful signal is in the month-on-month trend, which suggests the market is proving relatively resilient and activity levels are holding broadly steady,” he said.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said the figures show a return to more expected numbers. However, he warned of challenges ahead. “Sentiment within the housing sector remains a central indicator of economic health. With global unease continuing to add potential unforeseen pressures for many people, it is important to apply a sense of caution regarding affordability over the coming weeks and months.
“We have recently witnessed Ofgem raise the energy price cap by 13%, effective from July. This, coupled with what is a generally changeable direction for both inflation and base rate, could add up to producing a challenging period ahead.”