Sometimes climate change can seem like a distant threat, an intimidating shadow being cast by something far away. We know that it’s bad, but it can be difficult to visualise what rising temperatures in the atmosphere will look like from the ground.
That’s the gap that a new report from insurance company Aviva report begins to fill in. The report, which is largely focused on flooding, paints a pretty bleak picture for the UK, should climate change continue at its current rate. It reveals the towns that could be at risk of severe flooding by 2050, and exactly how many homes could be at risk of damage to floodwater without intervention.
In order to create its report, Aviva’s experts analysed every authority in England, Scotland, and Wales, drawing on ‘a combination of national datasets, climate projections and map-based modelling’.
Coastal communities are at the highest risk of flooding, alongside cities built on rivers. This means like hubs like London – which we went into more detail on here – Glasgow, and Liverpool could be partly underwater by the middle of the century. London, Liverpool, Cardiff, and Bristol will all be hit by both rising sea and river levels, putting them in the danger zone. Currently, 2.4 million properties in the UK are at high-risk of coastal or river floods, but estimates suggest this could rise to 3.2 million in 2050.
Here are the parts of the UK that may see greater risk of flooding, on a national level and then for Scotland and Wales.
The 10 UK areas that are most likely to be abandoned to flooding
The 10 areas that Aviva outlined as having the highest increase in risk of severe flooding by 2050 are all in England. Here’s the list, including the percentage of properties that could be in danger of flooding at that point.
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark: 90.4 percent
- Boston and Skegness: 89.9 percent
- Kingston upon Hull North: 85.3 percent
- Kingston upon Hull East: 80.1 percent
- Vauxhall and Camberwell Green: 74.5 percent
- South Holland and The Deepings: 72.9 percent
- Kingston upon Hull West: 68.0 percent
- Weston-super-Mare: 66.8 percent
- Spelthorne: 66.7 percent
- Battersea: 64.5 percent
The 10 areas in Scotland that are most likely to be abandoned to flooding
If you’re looking to escape potential future floods (but stay in Britain), Scotland seems the best bet. Here’s where could become victim to coastal floods, including the number of properties that will be at high risk of damage by 2080.
- Alloa and Grangemouth: 15.6 percent
- Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire: 10.0 percent
- West Dunbartonshire: 9.7 percent
- Stirling and Strathallan: 8.7 percent
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: 8.0 percent
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: 7.8 percent
- Aberdeen South: 7.4 percent
- Perth and Kinross-shire: 7.3 percent
- Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber: 6.9 percent
- Dumfries and Galloway: 6.7 percent
The 10 areas in Wales that are most likely to be abandoned to flooding
Newport is Wales’ most at risk district. Here’s where else in the country may have to prepare for high water levels, including the percentage of buildings that will be high risk in 2050.
- Newport East: 37.7 percent
- Cardiff South and Penarth: 36.3 percent
- Clwyd North: 27.5 percent
- Cardiff West: 24.5 percent
- Alyn and Deeside: 17.4 percent
- Newport West and Islwyn: 16.6 percent
- Aberafan Maesteg: 16.3 percent
- Bangor Aberconwy: 16.1 percent
- Clwyd East: 13.7 percent
- Llanelli: 12.7 percent
All of this may be dispiriting, but a representative from Aviva has reminded us that there are things we can do to stop these estimations becoming reality; ‘It is not too late to act… There are solutions – big and small – which could help to improve the UK’s climate-readiness if we take collaborative and urgent action.
‘By taking vital steps now, we can help safeguard millions of properties and protect important landmarks from climate impacts in the decades to come.’
ICYMI: When every major UK Christmas market returns for 2025.
Plus: two of Time Out’s happiest cities in the world are in the UK.
Stay in the loop: sign up to our free Time Out UK newsletter for the latest UK news and the best stuff happening across the country.