In London, property-specific risk data reduced projected values by 30.9% against the macro baseline. Across all regions, the average reduction reached 21.6%.
Those projections sit against a market already under strain. UK property insurance claims hit a record £6.1 billion in 2025. Domestic flood claims jumped 38% to £312 million and subsidence payouts reached an all-time high of £307 million, according to the ABI. Deloitte has forecast that home insurers will swing to a net loss in 2026, with the combined ratio expected to reach 102.1%.
The Prudential Regulation Authority’s (PRA) Dynamic General Insurance Stress Test, launched in May, is already pressing firms on exactly this kind of exposure. The study called for postcode and address-level risk analytics to become standard practice in lending, underwriting, and portfolio modelling.
The Flood Re safety net winds down in 2039. After that, pricing reverts to fully risk-reflective levels – and the properties that are hardest to insure today will become harder still to mortgage. For brokers, that is not a distant problem. It is the next valuation on their desk.
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