2026 certainly began eventfully! America’s extraordinary raid on Venezuela and an undiplomatic push to boost its strategic foothold in Greenland demonstrated geopolitical risk must be a central consideration for investors this year.
While the collapse of rules-based international order is disconcerting, it isn’t just down to one US president. The west made enormous miscalculations in its dealings with Russia, China and the middle east from the 1990s onward. Coupled with an addiction to deficits and unproductive state spending in Europe and America, those foreign policy mistakes have long been coming home to roost. The shift to a more volatile multi-polar world is the consequence.
Volatility is something we must be prepared for in asset markets, too. Many investors will have been delighted by the rise then (if they bought in late) dismayed by the sudden reversal in the gold price as February began. For our Alpha portfolios, which have been invested up their five per cent maximum since we began tracking live performance in September 2024, the yellow metal has still been a great source of gains overall.