Key Takeaways
- Mortgage rates are rising despite yesterday’s Federal Reserve rate cut—a reminder that the Fed’s short-term rate doesn’t directly drive mortgage rates.
- Instead, mortgage costs are influenced by interrelated factors like inflation, the bond market, housing data, and economic trends.
- Predicting where mortgage rates will go is next to impossible, so if you’re ready to buy or refinance, make your move when the timing is right for you.
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Today’s Mortgage Rate News
We cover new purchase and refinance mortgage rates every business day. Find our latest rate reports here:
The Fed Cut Its Benchmark Rate, But Mortgage Rates Are Ticking Higher
The day before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this week, 30-year mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in almost 13 months—registering 6.37% on Tuesday. But after the Fed’s announcement Wednesday afternoon, the flagship average ticked up a couple of basis points.
Today, it’s jumping even higher—up a bold nine basis points to 6.46% so far. And since it’s been climbing all day, the final Thursday average could still move higher.
This is despite the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate a quarter point. While many homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance were hoping for some rate relief, mortgage rates have edged higher instead.
Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said he’s not surprised. “As these moves were anticipated by the market, MBA does not expect any significant changes to mortgage rates as a result,” he said.
It’s a reminder that Fed moves don’t directly determine mortgage rates.
Why This Matters to You
Waiting for mortgage rates to fall after a Fed cut? You could be waiting awhile. Understanding what truly drives mortgage helps you plan realistically—rather than trying to time the market.
What Really Determines Mortgage Rates
It’s a common assumption: When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, mortgage rates should fall. But that’s not how it works. The Fed’s benchmark rate mainly affects short-term borrowing costs—like credit cards, personal loans, and bank savings yields—and has a much smaller effect on long-term loans such as mortgages.
Thirty-year mortgage rates are shaped by a broader mix of forces, including inflation expectations, housing demand, and overall economic conditions. Most importantly, they tend to follow the bond market—particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences lenders’ costs.
That’s why mortgage rates often move independently of the Fed’s decisions—and sometimes in the opposite direction. As Realtor.com Senior Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones noted in a commentary Thursday, “Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed. In response, the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher, indicating that mortgage rates could face renewed upward pressure in the weeks ahead.”
This same pattern has played out several times in the past year: Each time the Fed has trimmed rates, mortgage rates have climbed instead. It’s too soon to know whether that will hold this time, but one day out, there’s no sign yet of the rate relief many buyers were hoping for.
Ultimately, it’s nearly impossible to predict where mortgage rates will go in the short term. They respond not to one policy move, but to a web of shifting factors across the economy.
What This Means for Homebuyers and Homeowners
For buyers, the message is familiar but worth repeating: It’s nearly impossible to time the mortgage market. Rates can rise or fall for reasons that have little to do with the Fed, so waiting for the “perfect” moment can mean missing the right home. If you’ve found one that fits your budget and long-term plans, acting when you’re financially ready is often the smarter move.
For homeowners, even though rates haven’t fallen as much as many hoped, refinancing could still be worth exploring if your mortgage is in the high 7% or 8% range. The goal is to lock in a new rate low enough to offset the refinancing costs. A simple way to tell if it makes sense is to calculate how long it will take to break even. If it takes several years to recoup the refinancing fees through lower monthly payments—but you may move before then—staying put could be the wiser choice.
In the end, no one can predict exactly where mortgage rates will go from here. That’s why the best strategy, for both buyers and homeowners, is to make decisions based on your finances, not the Fed’s next move.
How We Track the Best Mortgage Rates
The national and state averages cited above are provided as is via the Zillow Mortgage API, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80% (i.e., a down payment of at least 20%) and an applicant credit score in the 680–739 range. The resulting rates represent what borrowers should expect when receiving quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates. © Zillow, Inc., 2025. Use is subject to the Zillow Terms of Use.