Dave Tindall looks ahead to the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has two recommended bets.
If you’re a regular dipper into the PGA Tour’s Driving Distance stats, you’ll be used to seeing the name ALDRICH POTGIETER. There he is right at the top, his average blast measuring a mighty 326.6 yards. That’s a full six yards longer than second-placed Rory McIlroy. Those who enjoy cult stats tables may also know of his No.1 ranking in Ball Speed.
Followers of the PGA Tour on a weekly basis will also be aware that the 20-year-old South African – the youngest player on the Tour – has had a couple of chances to win this season. At the Farmers Insurance Open he was just two back but slumped to a final-round 78 to finish 15th. And after taking a one-shot lead into the last day of the Mexico Open on his next start four weeks later, Potgieter lost on the second extra hole of a playoff to Brian Campbell.
So, after taking a two-shot lead here thanks to a superb 65 on Saturday which elevated him to 19-under, the obvious question is this: are those experiences all money in the bank for Potgieter to hit the jackpot now? If so, the general 3/1 that he wins seems pretty attractive.
That price reflects his lack of a victory at this level yet plus the fact that the chasing pack is a heavy one – in terms of numbers at least. Max Greyserman, Jake Knapp, Mark Hubbard, Andrew Putnam and Chris Kirk are all two back on 17-under while it’s another stroke in arrears to Thriston Lawrence, Michael Thorbjornsen and Jackson Suber.
It doesn’t end there. The 15-unders (four behind) are Collin Morikawa, in-form Harry Hall and Nicolai Hojgaard while the 14-unders include Davis Thompson, Ben Griffin and Matt Fitzpatrick. Betting-wise, Greyserman is 6s ahead of Knapp and Kirk at 8/1. Hubbard and Putnam can be found at 10s and 12s respectively while Morikawa is around 14/1.
In theory it’s wide open but I really do like the man with the two-shot lead. As well as those final-day experiences, Potgieter has packed in plenty in his short career that makes him much more than just a monster-hitting freak act. He’s the second youngest winner of the British Amateur Championship (he beat Sam Bairstow in the final at Royal Lytham) at the age of 17 in 2022. He then became the youngest ever Korn Ferry winner (19 years, 133 days) when landing the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic in January 2024. This is no ordinary golfer.
You can also argue his case from a technical point of view. The man who started playing the game at Mossel Bay (made famous by Open winner Louis Oosthuizen who runs a Golf Academy there) looked to lack subtlety – a criticism often thrown at giant hitters. It looked that way in the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open when he didn’t really have the nuance to play a course as tough as Torrey Pines when the heat was on.
But, two things. First, Detroit GC is a far more straightforward examination. Second, Potgieter has put new irons in his bag this week. He explained: “I had a fitting with Titleist and we improved a lot on what the ball’s doing and spin control and I think that was the hardest part. I think my technique was good, I just struggled with the equipment a little bit to kind of do what I was wanting to do.”
He often had tricky 20-yard gaps between irons, meaning he had to feather a longer club or blast a shorter one. The closing of that gap gives him more control. Looking at this stats so far, Potgieter ranks 3rd Tee to Green and 7th for Approach. His irons are certainly way better due to the change (he’s 141st for Approach on the season-long stats) so we have some reassurance that he’s not just doing this via a hot putter (26th for SG: Putting so far this week). Potgieter, who flashed some good form when sixth at Colonial last time, is a bet at the general 3/1.
The second outright tip I’ll make is CHRIS KIRK at 8/1. The key here is the wind switch. Mark Hubbard, one of the quintet with Kirk in second, gave this insight after round three. “The wind difference makes a big change with it coming out of the north a little bit. It’s a weird course where all the par 5s go the same direction, so if it’s out of the south they’re super gettable, if it’s out of the north they’re not, especially for a guy like me. I hit three drivers off the deck today, which wasn’t the norm. So it played harder, but I think it’s going back to the south tomorrow, so I expect a ton of birdies tomorrow.”
Hubbard is only just a below average hitter but Kirk is much shorter (135th for DD this season). In other words, you’d guess that Kirk flourished more in the southerly winds. And that’s the case. Whereas he had to battle away for a 69 on Saturday, Kirk racked up a pair of 65s in his first two rounds when he found life easier.
As a six-time PGA Tour champion, he has far more experience of winning than those around him and the 40-year-old has a strong record here. He was all set to make it top 25s from all five visits last year but fell away on Sunday. Still, his wedge play and putting help him thrive on this layout and as he said at the halfway mark: “I definitely feel comfortable here, it’s a golf course that I like. I mean, I play a 1920 Donald Ross at home, Athens Country Club, so maybe it’s a similar feel.”
Kirk has PGA Tour wins in both 2023 and 2024, and after a poor stretch this season, really found something when 12th in the US Open. “I was really struggling and didn’t know what I was doing, but I really love Oakmont so that was why I was like okay, I’m going to go play and see what I can do. Played really solid, drove the ball the best I had all year that week and everything was pretty good.” That could be a turning point so back him here each-way at 8/1.
Finally, every winner here in this event which is only in its seventh edition was in the top three after 54 holes. What’s more, three of those six champions had a piece of the lead. That further justified the plays on leader Potgieter and second-placed Kirk.
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