Under a higher physical‑risk pathway, expected annual weather‑related losses across Australian homes increase from under $7 billion in 2024 to more than $16 billion by 2050, driven by storms, hail, floods, bushfires, and cyclones. In a delayed‑transition pathway, inflation in construction costs and weaker income growth are the main drivers of worsening affordability, even where hazard exposure changes more slowly. The analysis indicates that regional and rural communities are likely to bear a larger share of the protection gap, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland. APRA has warned that more uninsured homes could translate into higher credit risk for banks, greater uninsured losses for households, and increased pressure on governments to provide post‑disaster support.