The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4.25 per cent as it continues to tread carefully amid fears of resurgent inflation.
The decision came as little surprise to financial markets, with a pause widely predicted by analysts.
Its previous decision, last month, was to cut rates from 4.5 to 4.25 per cent, taking base rate 1 percentage point below its 5.25 per cent peak.
The next decision will take place on 7 August, and will depend on what happens to the rate of inflation, but also the health of the overall economy.
Today’s decision to hold rates will be unwelcome news for many households who are hoping to see the cost of their mortgage reduce.
However, it will be received positively by savers who saw rates slashed following May’s cut.
We explain what the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 4.25 per cent means for your mortgage and savings – and whether rates could be cut again soon.
Hold: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, led by governor Andrew Bailey, has voted to keep interest rates at 4.25% – but a cut in August is now widely predicted
What does this mean for mortgage borrowers?
Today’s decision to hold the base rate at 4.25 per cent will seem like bad news for mortgage borrowers.
However, most would have seen little immediate benefit even if rates had been cut.
That is because lenders usually base their pricing on the longer-term trajectory of interest rates, rather than reacting to individual base rate decisions.
Interest rates are expected to be cut one more time this year to 4 per cent, before eventually settling at around 3.75 or 3.5 per cent.
David Morris, head of homes at Santander said this year’s rate cuts ‘are already “priced in” to mortgage rates, meaning that market-leading rates should continue to hover around the top end of the threes or lower end of the fours’.
He added: ‘In practice home buyers trying to play the market and wait for the return of ultra-low rates may well be waiting for some time.’
> Mortgage calculator: Check the best rates based on your property value
What next for mortgage rates?
The lowest fixed rate mortgage deals continue to hover just below 4 per cent.
The lowest fixed rate is a three-year fixed remortgage deal offered by MPowered Mortgages charging 3.82 per cent.
NatWest is offering the lowest two-year and five-year fix at 3.92 per cent and 3.95 per cent respectively.
These are all based on a 40 per cent deposit, but most home buyers should be able to secure a rate of somewhere between 4 and 5 per cent.
The future direction of mortgage rates hinges on what markets perceive to be the future of interest rates and the future of interest rates hinge not just on the rate of inflation, but also on the health of the overall economy.
The latest Office for National Statistics monthly estimate for April 2025 showed the UK economy contracted by 0.3 percent compared with March, more than the 0.1 percent fall analysts had expected.
Reacting to the negative surprise, money market bets for the next Bank of England rate cut in August increased from 81 per cent to 86 per cent, up from just 44 per cent at the start of the month.
However, higher than expected inflation could result in MPC members refraining from rate cuts in the future.
Inflation was 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to May, falling from 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to April, ONS figures revealed earlier this week.
At 3.4 per cent, inflation still sits significantly higher than the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.
Matt Smith, a mortgage expert at Rightmove, said: ‘As the rate of inflation stays above 3 per cent, the expectation is that the Bank of England is set to act cautiously.
‘Anticipation had risen that we may be in line for multiple base rate cuts this year at the peak of tariff uncertainty, but as some of these pressures have eased, this expectation has fallen back.
‘Forecasts for the rest of the year are likely to jump around a bit due to ongoing global uncertainty and changes in how the market expects things to pan out.’
Inflation watch: It has fallen to 3.4% but continues to be above the Bank of England’s 2% target
At present, market forecasts point to interest rates being cut one more time in 2025 to 4 per cent and then falling to either 3.75 per cent or 3.5 per cent in 2026.
Some major financial organisations have predicted they could fall further than this, though.
For example, HSBC and UBS are forecasting that interest rates will fall to 3 per cent by the end of 2026.
There are also some that think interest rates will stay higher. Analysts at Pantheon have forecast that interest rates will finish 2026 at 4 per cent – only 0.25 percentage points below where they are today.
What should you do with your mortgage?
Those who need to buy or remortgage soon may be wondering whether to opt for a two or five-year fix.
Mortgage advisor Aaron Strutt of Trinity Financial advises borrowers to not base decisions on mortgage rates falling in the near future.
‘The number of people opting for two-year fixes in anticipation of cheaper borrowing costs has increased as the base rate and fixed rates are expected to get cheaper over the near term,’ he said.
‘Some of the big investment banks have been predicting some pretty significant base rate reductions, but personally, I wouldn’t bet on it.
‘While most borrowers are taking two-year fixes, opting for a three- or five-year fix isn’t such a bad idea.
‘Payment security is really important in these challenging economic times.’
What does this mean for savers?
The base rate affects how much interest savers can earn on their money. In general, savings rates rise when the base rate is rising, and fall when it is falling.
Now that the base rate has been held at 4.25 per cent, savers could get a ‘stay of execution’ according to Kevin Brown of building society Scottish Friendly.
‘The longer the MPC waits [to cut], the longer savers can enjoy competitive returns,’ he added.
Those who keep their cash in easy-access Isas are most at risk of rate cuts, according to one financial expert.
The top accounts on This is Money’s best-buy cash Isa tables currently pay around 5.4 per cent, well above the current base rate of 4.25 per cent.
James Blower, founder of the Savings Guru says: ‘Easy access Isa rates are the most ripe for cuts.
‘Moneybox has already cut its rate today and Tembo is set to tomorrow – expect to see Plum and Trading 212 fall back too.’
James Blower, founder of the Savings Guru, says rates will fall in the second half of 2025
What next for savings rates?
The direction of travel for savings rates in a falling base rate environment is only one way and that is down.
Though the base rate has been held at 4.25 per cent, if it falls to 4 per cent or 3.75 per cent by the end of this year as markets are currently predicting, fixed-rate bonds and Isas are the savings accounts most likely to be in the firing line.
Blower said: ‘I can’t see any reason for rates to do anything but fall in the second half of 2025.’
For those looking to lock their money away for a time, the best one-year bond currently pays 4.5 per cent. This is down from a high of 6.2 per cent in October 2023.
Blower added: ‘Fixed-rate bonds and fixed Isas are likely to hold around current levels, for now, but expect them to ease back in the summer and fall further if I am right about the August cut.’
‘The 4.5 per cent paid on one-year bonds currently, while lower than it has been earlier in the year, is likely to look great value in the coming weeks.
‘Expect one-year best-buys to fall to around the 4.25 per cent mark by the end of the summer if the base rate is cut in August.’
> Best fixed-rate savings accounts: See the top deals in our independent tables
What should savers do now?
Savers should keep a keen eye on their savings rate, whether it is an easy-access account, fixed-rate account or an Isa.
If your money is not working hard enough for you, move it to an account paying a better rate.
Rachel Springall of rates scrutineer Moneyfacts Compare says: ‘The savers who are worried rates will come down in the coming months may then wish to grab a top fixed deal for a guaranteed return.’
‘Outside of fixed bond rates, there has been some competition across the fixed cash Isa top rate tables, now with new market-leading rates.
‘Savers looking to protect their money from tax would do well to take advantage of their new Isa allowance if they have yet to do so.
‘Loyalty does not pay so it comes down to savers to proactively review rates and switch their account if they are getting a poor return on their hard-earned cash.’
Best savings rates and how to find them
The best easy-access savings deals pay around 4.75 per cent.
Atom Bank is offering a market-leading easy-access deal paying 4.75 per cent. Someone putting £10,000 in this account could expect to earn £475 in interest after a year, if the rate remains the same.
Those with cash they won’t immediately need over the next year or two should consider fixed-rate savings.
The best one-year deal is offered by Cynergy Bank paying 4.5 per cent.
A saver putting £10,000 in this account will earn a guaranteed £450 interest over one year. It comes with full protection under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme up to £85,000 per person.
The best two-year bond pays 4.43 per cent and comes from Birmingham Bank. This provider also offers the best three-year bond which pays 4.47 per cent. Hampshire Trust Bank has a five-year bonds which pays 4.46 per cent.
Savers should also strongly consider using a cash Isa to protect the interest they earn from being taxed.
CMC Invest is currently offering a market-leading 5.44 per cent on its easy-access cash Isa for new customers. It includes a 0.85 per cent bonus for three months. After this the rate will revert to 4.59 per cent.
Meanwhile, Trading 212* has a cash Isa paying 4.86 per cent with a 12-month bonus of 0.76 per cent.