Vietnam’s real estate market is seeing short-term speculative capital retreat from high-risk assets, while projects supported by completed infrastructure, genuine housing demand and income-generating potential continue to attract buyers, according to market participants.
The assessment was presented on Thursday at a market briefing in Ho Chi Minh City held by the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), which released its second-quarter and first-half real estate market report.
Homebuyers view an apartment model. Photo courtesy of Dai bieu Nhan dan (People’s Delegates) newspaper.
Nearly 34,000 new residential units were launched in Q2, down about 10% from the previous quarter. However, total housing supply reached around 98,000 units in H1, up about 50% from the same period in 2025.
More than 70,000 of those units were newly launched, concentrated mainly in large-scale urban developments and projects benefiting from major transport infrastructure investment.
Despite the increase in supply, the imbalance between supply and demand remained unresolved. Around 82% of newly launched apartments were positioned in the high-end, luxury and ultra-luxury segments, while mid-range units accounted for about 18%. Affordable commercial housing was virtually absent from the market.
VARS attributed the lack of affordable housing to rising land, financing and construction costs, as well as increasingly stringent project quality requirements, which have pushed developers toward higher-priced segments. Under current market conditions, affordable commercial housing is unlikely to return in significant numbers without adjustments to pricing benchmarks or product classification criteria, it said.
The market is also entering a new phase in which owner-occupier demand and the income-generating capacity of properties are increasingly replacing short-term price speculation as the main investment driver.
“The recovery of the property market remains on track, but differences across market segments, regions and participants are becoming increasingly pronounced,” VARS chairman Nguyen Van Dinh said.
“Changes in the legal framework, the business environment, project development costs and buyer behaviour are accelerating a broader market shakeout,” he added.
Dinh noted that the market was no longer driven by expectations of short-term price appreciation, but by genuine housing demand and the ability of assets to generate cash flow,” Dinh said. “This adjustment is necessary to foster a more transparent and healthier market while encouraging developers to improve product quality and project execution.”
The trend was also reflected in transaction data. Primary market sales totalled about 23,600 units in Q2, bringing H1 transactions to around 48,000 units. The absorption rate for newly launched projects stood at approximately 58%, indicating that demand remained resilient while buyers became increasingly selective, favoring projects with clear legal status, reliable construction progress and reputable developers.
Speakers at the conference said homebuyers were now placing greater emphasis on pricing, mortgage availability, legal transparency, construction progress, handover quality and rental potential, rather than relying primarily on expectations of capital gains. Short-term speculative activity has become more localized and tends to fade quickly, they said.
Primary home prices remained elevated as development costs increased and new supply continued to be dominated by higher-end projects. Instead of cutting prices, many developers have offered larger discounts, interest rate subsidies and more flexible payment schedules to stimulate demand.
Average primary apartment prices nationwide reached about VND80 million ($3,050) per square meter in Q2, with the H1 average at VND76.5 million ($2,910) per sqm, up around 10% from a year earlier, according to VARS.
In Ho Chi Minh City, average primary prices stood at roughly VND108 million ($4,110) per sqm, little changed from the previous quarter. In the former Binh Duong province (now part of HCMC after their merger last July), where several projects have been positioned in the premium segment, average prices have risen to around VND58 million per sqm.
The secondary market has become increasingly differentiated after a period of rapid price growth. Areas with completed infrastructure, strong end-user demand and good rental prospects continued to post stable price gains, while speculative projects or those heavily dependent on unconfirmed planning expectations struggled with weak liquidity.
“The current market shakeout should not be viewed as a sign of decline, but as a necessary restructuring process,” the VARS chairman said. “As owner-occupier demand becomes the primary growth driver, projects with transparent legal status, high construction quality, strong income potential, and good liquidity are expected to outperform.”
Nguyen Quoc Anh, deputy CEO of property portal Batdongsan.com.vn, predicted that the market would remain defensive this year, with clearer divergence emerging across asset classes and locations.
He said investors should prioritize properties capable of generating stable cash flow in areas with strong occupancy, rental demand and long-term liquidity, particularly as inflation and rising costs continue to weigh on investment decisions.
Su Ngoc Khuong, senior director of investment at Savills Vietnam, said Vietnam was entering an unprecedented phase of large-scale infrastructure investment that would underpin long-term growth in the property market.
“As infrastructure becomes a fundamental requirement rather than simply a supporting factor, investment capital is increasingly shifting toward resilient assets capable of generating sustainable cash flow instead of short-term speculative opportunities,” he said.