Cotality’s latest data shows a 0.1 percent increase in values in April.
Photo: RNZ
About 1500 fewer homes have sold so far this year compared to the same time a year earlier, and there are warnings that softness is likely to continue.
Cotality has released its latest data, which shows a 0.1 percent increase in values in April. Christchurch and Dunedin showed resilience but areas such as Wellington and Auckland were still subdued.
Sales were 9 percent lower than the same month in 2025, the fourth fall in a row. So far this year, sales numbers are down about 5 percent compared to the same time in 2025.
“We’re running at about average levels,” Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
“They’re still higher than they were two or three years ago at that really low point in 2022, 2023.
“The point is that after growth in 2024 and 2025, we were anticipating more growth this year, but actually the year so far has underperformed and sales volumes over the first three or four months of the year have just looked a little bit soft and that to some extent predated the Iran conflict anyway.
“January and February were looking a little bit softer and that’s continued on in March and April.
Photo: SUPPLIED
“Having previously thought perhaps we might see 8 to 10 percent growth in sales volumes for the year as a whole, now that’s looking a little bit shaky and given where we are four months into the year and with interest rates being higher than what we previously thought and the economy looking weaker than what we previously thought because Iran’s come along, you’re probably thinking now that the market would do well to stay flat in terms of sales volumes.”
He said where previously there might have been expected to be 100,000 sales this year it was now more likely to be more like 90,000.
“Even holding steady wouldn’t be terrible.”
He said Auckland and Wellington were still affected by lower levels of confidence.
“It’s all relative and it’s not like anywhere’s really booming, just that sales volumes in parts of Canterbury, parts of Southland are holding up a little bit better.”
He said buyers had a lot of choice and those who were confident about their jobs or ability to service debt were in a good position.
“Sellers might be a wee bit disappointed with soft activity and flat house prices, but … it’s a really good time to be a buyer and we’re still seeing first-time buyers, very, very strong.
“We’re seeing mortgaged investors are sort of there or thereabouts too, they’re not booming, but they’ve made a comeback and so any buyers at the moment will be finding things to their liking, I would say.”
First-home buyers were 28 percent of the market, still around a record level. Mortgaged multiple property owners were 24 percent of purchases, a figure Cotality said was about normal.
Movers were more cautious.
Davidson said there was evidence that owner-occupiers could sometimes get a better deal if they were trading up during a downturn.
“It’s not a terrible time to be moving around, but we are seeing movers in general are pretty quiet.”
The total number of properties listed on the market remains relatively high, although it was below the level of this time last year and even a bit lower than 2024.
Rents were subdued, particularly in Auckland where there was a strong supply of rental accommodation and Wellington, where demand was slower.
Around 58 percent of NZ’s existing mortgages by value are currently fixed but due to reprice on to a new mortgage term over the next 12 months and about 33 percent within six months, with another 10 percent floating.
Significantly more people are now fixing their mortgages for more than 12 months. Towards the end of last year it was about 20 percent of new lending but is now more than 50 percent.
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