NAR’s separate pending home sales index showed a 1.5% gain in March, after modest improvement in February, hinting that closed sales in late spring could stabilize rather than surge.
Mortgage Bankers Association data pointed in the same cautiously positive direction. Mortgage applications rose 1.8% in the week ending April 10, with refinance share climbing to 45.5% of activity, suggesting rate‑sensitive borrowers have started to re‑engage as levels drifted back toward the low‑6% band.
Rate volatility shapes spring strategy
Behind the headline rate moves, the 10‑year Treasury yield – the key benchmark for mortgage pricing – hovered just above 4.3% this week, down only slightly from a week earlier.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the war in Iran and the path of inflation whipsawed yields in recent months, complicating lock decisions for borrowers and originators alike.
For now, this week’s move keeps mortgage costs below last year’s levels and gives rate‑sensitive buyers slightly more breathing room on payments. But with inventory still constrained in many markets and macro risks unresolved, industry professionals are likely to treat the latest decline as a modest tailwind rather than a reset.