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National Bank of Canada’s fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly from CA$189.15 to CA$188.15, keeping the updated target tightly aligned with current modelling assumptions. Analysts are highlighting mortgage renewal risks and group wide earnings expectations as reasons why, even with targets clustered in the CA$179 to CA$202 range, there is limited appetite to stretch valuations far beyond present fundamentals. As you read on, you will see how this evolving narrative can shape the way you track the bank’s story over time.
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Scotiabank, BMO Capital and Desjardins have all lifted targets into the CA$188 to CA$202 range, paired with Outperform or Buy ratings. This signals confidence in the bank’s ability to support higher valuations under their current assumptions.
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RBC Capital raised its target to CA$193 from CA$163, while Raymond James moved to CA$179 from CA$173, reflecting updated modelling around earnings power and capital deployment across the Canadian bank group.
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Barclays framed its higher targets, first to CA$177 then to CA$183, around expectations for modest Q1 earnings support from balance sheet trends, stable net interest income, cost control and active share repurchases.
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Several firms, including TD Securities with a Hold rating and Barclays with Equal Weight, are keeping more neutral stances. This suggests some caution on stretching multiples much beyond current ranges.
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Barclays’ earlier Q1 preview cited mortgage renewal concerns for Canadian banks, indicating that funding costs and credit behaviour around renewals remain a watchpoint when you think about the durability of earnings assumptions.
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We’ve flagged 1 risk for National Bank of Canada. See which could impact your investment.
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National Bank of Canada reported that between November 1, 2025 and January 31, 2026, it repurchased 3,593,000 shares, or 0.92% of its shares, for CA$619 million, bringing total buybacks under the current program to 4,978,400 shares, or 1.27%, for CA$832 million.
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On February 24, 2026, the bank announced a 6,500,000 share increase to its equity buyback plan, bringing total authorization to 14,500,000 common shares, or about 3.7% of its issued share capital, with approvals received on March 10, 2026 from the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.
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National Bank of Canada also disclosed the opening of a new office in the Dubai International Financial Centre in the United Arab Emirates to support Canadian clients pursuing business opportunities in the Middle East, led by Ali Fares, Managing Director and Head, Middle East and North Africa, Capital Markets.