The estate agency Savills reported in February that the the delivery of new homes fell by 9pc in 2023 compared to the year before, with only 231,000 properties completed. The annualised rate of completions has now been falling for five consecutive quarters.
At the same time, the number of planning consents for new homes has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, with consent for only 235,000 properties granted during the whole of 2023.
Given that there is typically a 10pc attrition rate – that is properties for which consent is granted that don’t actually get built for one reason or another – it is now very possible that delivery will fall below the 200,000 level over the next couple of years.
It is certainly not going to increase. After all, no one can build a house without permission.
And yet, just as there is no sign that building will increase, there is also no sign that immigration will come back under control any time soon. With net arrivals running at 700,000 or more a year, you hardly need a doctorate in economics to figure out that demand is far outstripping supply.
The UK would have to double the number of houses it is building, and sustain that figure for a decade at least, to bring any semblance of balance back into the market. So long as that persists, all we can do is argue more and more furiously about how to divide up the existing pie.
Like First World War generals launching one failed offensive after another, the leaders of the great war on landlords don’t seem in the least bit worried that their strategy is not working. They blindly assume that “one more heave” will bring them victory, and vindicate all the losses along the way.
At some point, the UK will have to figure out that we need lower immigration and a lot more home building, or some combination of the two to fix the housing crisis. Until that happens, however, the war on landlords is only going to become more and more bitter.